AIA Forecaster: Technical Report - LLM-Based System for Judgmental Forecasting

Key Points

• LLM-based forecasting system combines agentic search over news sources with supervisor agent reconciliation
• Statistical calibration techniques specifically counter behavioral biases in large language models
• Tested on ForecastBench benchmark for performance validation

Implications

Offers BFSI firms enhanced forecasting capabilities using unstructured data sources for risk assessment and strategic planning.

Action Required

Evaluate system's applicability for internal forecasting processes and risk modelling frameworks.